New Report Raises Spector of Sea Level Rise

A new report issued by US federal agencies, including the US EPA and the US Geological Survey, estimates that sea levels will rise higher than estimated as recently as 2007. The new report concludes that Florida and Louisiana are the states most vulnerable to sea-level rise, followed by North Carolina and Texas. The report presents three scenarios for sea-level rise by 2100: a rise of about 16 inches, of about 2 feet, and of about 3 feet. The report notes that if sea level should rise more than three feet during the 21st century (the worst-case scenario), “it is likely that some barrier islands in this region will cross a threshold” destabilizing and breaking apart.

Galveston is currently considering how to resurrect itself from the unimaginable destruction of Hurricane Ike (the worst natural disaster, in terms of damage, in Texas history and the third worst in U.S. history). The new Long-Term Community Recovery Committee (LTCRC) has integrated “sustainability” into its considerations, but I wonder if meeting the challenges of sea-level rise is among those issues being considered. To be blunt, how can it be avoided?

Concurrently, the USACE is considering several new development projects on the west end of Galveston Island (in truth, pre-Ike holdovers). The most recent (Marquette) has apparently ignored the impacts of Ike in its resubmission. Not only must the damage wrought by Ike be considered in any new development proposal and permit (how can we add insult to injury as the Bay is still healing?), but the USACE must also consider the impacts of the 2-to-3 foot rise of sea level within the foreseeable future. We can only hope that the new administration, with its clear commitment to new U.S. leadership in meeting the challenges of global warming, will extend this commitment to how its agencies, specifically the USACE, oversee the permitting of proposed coastal developments.

Ted Eubanks

For more information about the impacts of sea-level rise on Galveston Island, read the following:

Final Report – Abrupt Climate Change (US Geological Survey et. al)

EPA Global Warming Website

Living with Geohazards on Galveston Island: A Preliminary Report with Recommendations (Gibeaut, Anderson, and Dellapenna)

Coastal Geomorphic Responses to Sea Level Rise: Galveston Bay, Texas (Leatherman – PDF)

Modeling Future Changes in Barrier-Island Wetlands on Galveston Island, Texas (Gibeaut)

Hurricane Impact Map [prepared] for Galveston City Hall, Galveston, Texas (PC Weather Products, Inc.)

Coastal Erosion, Global Sea-Level Rise, and the Loss of Sand Dune Plant Habitats (Feagan, Sherman, and Grant)

How Will Climate Change Affect Transportation Decisions – The Gulf Coast Study (American Meteorological Association)

Look at Past Sea-Level Rise Points to Troubling Future (Anderson et.al)

Changes in Barrier Island Environments During Sea-Level Rise (PPT by Gibeaut)

National Assessment of Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise (USGS)

Global Warming Risks for Texas (Environmental Defense Fund)

Summary of Coastal Program Initiatives that Address Sea-Level Rise as a result of Gobal Climate Change [according to this report (Feb 2008] “at this time the Texas Coastal Program does not have sea-level-rise policies or initiatives specific to climate change.”]

Florida Tool Box for Coastal Planning

OCEN 400 Environmental Sustainability PPT (beach alternatives)

Beach Preservation and Stratetic Retreat (West Carolina University)

Responding to Global Warming Along The US Coast (USEPA)

Local Population Impacts and Mitigation of Sea Level Rise

Wintering Warblers – A Warning

In year’s past Yellow Warblers were exceedingly uncommon in Texas in the winter season. There would always be that odd one or two in the extreme lower Rio Grande Valley, but by in large they were absent until returning in the spring. Of course there are those warbler species that winter here at the northern fringe of their wintering range (Black-and-white, Black-throated Green, Wilson’s, Ovenbird, Northern Waterthrush), but Yellow, for the most past, has not been among this group.

In the past several years this has changed. Now Yellow is being seen regularly in winter as far north as the Coastal Bend (see Ebird map). This year there have been several along the central coast, including one in Port Aransas at the Turnbull Birding Center and four at Hans Suter Park in Corpus Christi. There have also been several Rose-breasted Grosbeaks, with one seen as far north as Galveston. So what gives?

As most CBC participants are aware, there are good years and there are bad years. There are years when there are volumes of lingering migrants, and there are years when you couldn’t buy one. But when we look across the vagaries of these annual fluctuations, it does appear as though there are increasing numbers of neotropical migrants that are short-stopping their flights to the tropics to spend the winter season along our coast.

The difficulty with assessing the concepts of global warming as applied (not theorized) is in finding tangible evidence of its impacts. Sea level rise in Texas? No problem. Melting ice shelves and glaciers? Got ’em. Rising mortality in coniferous (boreal) forests? No doubt. But what about these seemingly insignificant scraps of evidence such as lingering neotropical migrants or tropical species (Couch’s Kingbird, Green Jay, Greater Kiskadee, Clay-colored Thrush) pushing north? Aren’t these just as important in piecing together the global effects of temperature changes?

Texas is on the frontier of this work. By being positioned at the doorstep of the tropics, slight changes in northern ranges in bird species are felt here first. This is precisely why it is critical to collect as much information on these wintering birds as possible, including being sure that the data related to these sightings are entered into a repository such as eBird. Yes, it is great fun to find a rarity out of season (such as the recent Swainson’s Thrush). But this find may also provide evidence of a much more significant change afoot, one that will ultimately impact us all, feathered or not.

Of course you can contribute to piecing this puzzle together. Enter your sightings, not matter how brief or (to you) insignificant into Texas eBird. The combined efforts of thousands of birders are critical to documenting these changes at the landscape scale. Spend the time necessary to correctly document and identify these lingerers (isn’t it amazing how many species one can turn an Orange-crowned Warbler into?). Finally, follow these lingering neotrops throughout the season. Some are late fall migrants, but many are true winter residents. The trends in those that actually remain here for the entire winter could be a critical study.

Bird Diversity Lessens Human Exposure to West Nile Virus

Biologists at Washington University (St. Louis) have demonstrated that the more diverse a bird population is in an area, the less humans have a chance of being exposed to West Nile Virus WNV). “The bottom line is that where there are more bird species in your backyard, you have much lower risk of contracting West Nile Fever,” said Brian Allan, doctoral candidate in biology in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis.

“The mechanisms are similar to those described for the ecology of Lyme disease. Most birds are poor reservoirs for West Nile Virus, and so mosquito bites taken on them are ‘wasted’ from the perspective of the virus. Where many bird species exist, very few mosquitoes get infected, and so we humans are at low risk. A few bird species are highly competent reservoirs, and these tend to occur in urbanized and suburbanized areas where bird diversity suffers.”

The characteristic reservoir species in urban situations are Amercan Crows, grackles, House Finches, Blue Jays, House Sparrows, and American Robins (with the robin being the most prolific carrier of WNV). Robins are acclimated to humans, and by feeding on the ground are relatively easy prey for mosquitoes.

The bottom line of this study is that even in urban and suburban situtations, human health is positively impacted by a healthy, diverse bird population. A more detailed explanation of the finding are available on the Washington University in St. Louis website.

Salt Cedar – More Beneficial Than Once Thought?

Recent University of Arizona research shows that salt cedar is not the evil invader once thought. According to the researchers, “what we and scientists at other universities have done is a total rethink on the specific ways plants use water, and how you manage it…We did have resistance at first, and the restoration community has been slow to change their minds about this, but eventually the story gets out. That’s why science still does drive these processes. Eventually the practices catch up to the science.”

“We’ve sort of gone full circle from the saltcedar being added to the landscape, then being regarded as a nuisance, and now being recognized for its value.”

The Open Space Opportunity

The subject of “nature deficit disorder” has become de riguer in any meaningful discussion of urban planning. Most clearly enunciated and defined in Richard Louv’s Last Child Left in the Woods: Saving Our Children from Nature Deficit Disorder, the topic continues to be vigorously debated and the principles promoted (for another take on the subject see Stephen Kellert’s Building for Life: Designing and Understanding the Human-Nature Connection). Hurricane Ike’s storm surge may have presented Galveston with an unexpected opportunity to now address what has been a chronic deficit related to the connection of our inner city children, particularly those from the poorest families, and the outside world.

A recent article published on the website Children and Nature Network addresses this topic powerfully. The author (Jonah Lehrer) states the following:

Although Olmsted took pains to design parks with a variety of habitats and botanical settings, most urban greenspaces are much less diverse. This is due in part to the “savannah hypothesis,” which argues that people prefer wide-open landscapes that resemble the African landscape in which we evolved. Over time, this hypothesis has led to a proliferation of expansive civic lawns, punctuated by a few trees and playing fields. However, these savannah-like parks are actually the least beneficial for the brain.

In a recent paper, Richard Fuller, an ecologist at the University of Queensland, demonstrated that the psychological benefits of green space are closely linked to the diversity of its plant life. When a city park has a larger variety of trees, subjects that spend time in the park score higher on various measures of psychological well-being, at least when compared with less biodiverse parks. “We worry a lot about the effects of urbanization on other species,” Fuller says. “But we’re also affected by it. That’s why it’s so important to invest in the spaces that provide us with some relief.” When a park is properly designed, it can improve the function of the brain within minutes. As the Berman study demonstrates, just looking at a natural scene can lead to higher scores on tests of attention and memory. While people have searched high and low for ways to improve cognitive performance, from doping themselves with Red Bull to redesigning the layout of offices, it appears that few of these treatments are as effective as simply taking a walk in a natural place.

But where do Galvestonians “walk in a natural place?” If you are relatively affluent, and live on the west end, there are wonderful outdoor resources such as the beaches and Galveston Island State Park. If you live in the central city, the choices are more limited. Inner city park space is lacking, and many of the parks that do exist are poorly designed and managed.

Ike’s storm surge, though, now offers the central city an interesting opportunity to develop more urban open spaces and neighborhood “pocket” parks. Most neighborhoods will be left with significant holes or gaps from homes that must be removed (i.e., where the owners lacked the funds to rebuild). Of course there will be an opportunity for significant in-fill development. But what if some of these lots could be developed for inner city parks?

Given the importance of urban open spaces to the viability of neighborhoods and quality of life in a community, Galveston must quickly develop an urban open space strategy by which these central city properties can be better utilized. My vote is for parks.

Ted Eubanks