A new report issued by US federal agencies, including the US EPA and the US Geological Survey, estimates that sea levels will rise higher than estimated as recently as 2007. The new report concludes that Florida and Louisiana are the states most vulnerable to sea-level rise, followed by North Carolina and Texas. The report presents three scenarios for sea-level rise by 2100: a rise of about 16 inches, of about 2 feet, and of about 3 feet. The report notes that if sea level should rise more than three feet during the 21st century (the worst-case scenario), “it is likely that some barrier islands in this region will cross a threshold” destabilizing and breaking apart.
Galveston is currently considering how to resurrect itself from the unimaginable destruction of Hurricane Ike (the worst natural disaster, in terms of damage, in Texas history and the third worst in U.S. history). The new Long-Term Community Recovery Committee (LTCRC) has integrated “sustainability” into its considerations, but I wonder if meeting the challenges of sea-level rise is among those issues being considered. To be blunt, how can it be avoided?
Concurrently, the USACE is considering several new development projects on the west end of Galveston Island (in truth, pre-Ike holdovers). The most recent (Marquette) has apparently ignored the impacts of Ike in its resubmission. Not only must the damage wrought by Ike be considered in any new development proposal and permit (how can we add insult to injury as the Bay is still healing?), but the USACE must also consider the impacts of the 2-to-3 foot rise of sea level within the foreseeable future. We can only hope that the new administration, with its clear commitment to new U.S. leadership in meeting the challenges of global warming, will extend this commitment to how its agencies, specifically the USACE, oversee the permitting of proposed coastal developments.
Ted Eubanks
For more information about the impacts of sea-level rise on Galveston Island, read the following:
Final Report – Abrupt Climate Change (US Geological Survey et. al)
Living with Geohazards on Galveston Island: A Preliminary Report with Recommendations (Gibeaut, Anderson, and Dellapenna)
Coastal Geomorphic Responses to Sea Level Rise: Galveston Bay, Texas (Leatherman – PDF)
Modeling Future Changes in Barrier-Island Wetlands on Galveston Island, Texas (Gibeaut)
Hurricane Impact Map [prepared] for Galveston City Hall, Galveston, Texas (PC Weather Products, Inc.)
Coastal Erosion, Global Sea-Level Rise, and the Loss of Sand Dune Plant Habitats (Feagan, Sherman, and Grant)
How Will Climate Change Affect Transportation Decisions – The Gulf Coast Study (American Meteorological Association)
Look at Past Sea-Level Rise Points to Troubling Future (Anderson et.al)
Changes in Barrier Island Environments During Sea-Level Rise (PPT by Gibeaut)
National Assessment of Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise (USGS)
Global Warming Risks for Texas (Environmental Defense Fund)
Summary of Coastal Program Initiatives that Address Sea-Level Rise as a result of Gobal Climate Change [according to this report (Feb 2008] “at this time the Texas Coastal Program does not have sea-level-rise policies or initiatives specific to climate change.”]
Florida Tool Box for Coastal Planning
OCEN 400 Environmental Sustainability PPT (beach alternatives)
Beach Preservation and Stratetic Retreat (West Carolina University)